If you don't have a good emergency cash balance, I'd sell some now. A lot depends on your age and when you plan to retire. I'm 70 so I sell a bit of my winners so that I can buy more dividend payers that are solid companies. None of us (at least not me!) are smart enough to sell at the very top of the market nor buy at the very bottom!Debating on when to sell. Seems like the market is over valued. Could the bubble burst soon?
A few thoughts on this...I would sit out and watch for awhile. Democrats have promised to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 35%.
They also might extend lockdowns on the economy. If they do, Biden will announce this shortly after Jan 20th. This would be terrible.
I expect a 10-20% selloff if they follow through with this.
I would also note that the lockdowns have devastated small business/mom & pop operations, but the big box stores and Amazon's of the world (i.e. corporations) have been allowed to remain open and have been making record profits.They also might extend lockdowns on the economy. If they do, Biden will announce this shortly after Jan 20th. This would be terrible.
Gene, I sincerely appreciate your generous offer but I've already decided to sit tight. I don't need to sell anything and have about 30% in cash now. I'm retired and not taking any draws and I do have a broker that's of the buy and hold mindset. I just wondered if there was an overwhelming sentiment of the masses that the market was going to blow up any day now. BTW you don't owe me anything. I don't remember giving you any Q jet or JD advice of any significance but if I did I was just glad to help.AS A PROFESSIONAL..... I'm all about JJ'65's comments.
Von, we did a position-by-position analysis recently to check/reduce the market "beta" of portfolios. For folks like you, and I am guessing at your risk profile/age/etc, we recently moved to 20% cash. fwiw. Part of that is portfolios clients are drawing on, have well more than one years worth of income now in cash.
PS: here the biggest unpriced risk I saw across all portfolios , was in "safe" municipal bonds, btw.
AS a pro, I never give stupid advice like " sit it out and buy when it drops" as I know our limitations in forecasting and the market crazy dynamics. Yet, in my backwards world where the "queen" is our nuturing safety blanket, and the "king" is our risk- taking hunter, were e starting to feature more of the "queen" in our portfolios this year, and reigning back our "kings".
As I just posted elsewhere here, the old Wall Street adage is " tress don't grow to the sky". One year after you should NOT have been too prudent, now you likely ought be more so. And yes, it appears to be a contrary opinion. But they pay me not to blow their retirements up, so my perspective is somewhat conservative by contract.
Most of clients don't get my "dice-rolls" like EXROF or DQ. Yet, still a market you can cherry pick some "techie" picks in. And we're STUPIDLY ( top some) long oil and gas as I;ve mentioned here ( PBT), and ammo ( actually its the caustic soda) in Olin. More conservative accounts still own those, albeit a bit less OLN than a few weeks ago.
So, overall view, and then position by position is the method. If you care for a professional-level risk analysis von, i owe you for my Qjet and JD Hydro tractor help you given me over the years. [email protected]
Only take me 1-2 hours and its on me if you care to. From risk profile to risk analysis of portfolio, and changes that may need done. Then its up to you!
PS please hit me up before 2/1 as my professor duties start up again, and I get time constrained.