Ya, that's some brilliant insight right there. Very helpful. Be sure to PM us all when its time to get back in. A few days beforehand would be nice, as most of us are uncannily accurate looking backwards.
Professionals ought not give advice on public boards, but the questions I would ask are these: 1.) does the stock market often go through 10-20% corrections as a matter of course? Is this economic backdrop ( US I mean) different than in the 2008-2009 time frame?
For the big dollar investors, do you have an idea of your needs and surplus capital? Surplus can be more aggressively invested and needs is what the name implies. The trouble with needs cap is that conservative decent yielding investments are scant. Intermediate term corporate bonds only yield 3% ( use BIV as a proxy).
One "axiom" we used to hang our "hats on" was to ensure retirees' investments had a good dollup of inflation protection in their asset mix, and one of those was oil/gas. The old addage was " we've always made money for our clients buying oil cheap " . My question to you all is, has this changed systemically, or is this is a short-term blip?
One area we've never jumped into as the publicly traded investments weren't valued well, but which has always intrigued me as an alternative asset and inflation hedge is - US farmland. It looks like the Saudis think its time to buy more and they are buying US farmland to produce grains for their cattle back home. The cross current is, ultra-low interest rates have pushed values of everything higher, so lots of mini-bubbles still exist.
Going back to the "sage advice" given earlier, Dow 17,500 - 16,000 = 1500/17500 = - 10% . Is this the 10% correction we've been waiting for since 2012? Is it over, or does it extend into a protracted bear market shooting for a 20% correction, implying somewhere around 14,000 on the Dow30. ??? I'm asking, not telling. And yes, it was odd to see a few majors call for selling out a few weeks back, which begs the question - were they already short the market?
To Eric, while its not a "investments for dummies" book, the secondary text I tell our undergrad students to buy from Amazon is "The Intelligent Investor" written by Benjamin Graham, the godfather of value investing. If you PM me your email, I'll send over a "primer" on investments - ABC's type of thing which is a 10 page bascis document.
Sage advice from my son Donovan, " Dad if oil gets any cheaper, how can I buy a few barrels?? " Indeed.
Up your assets y'all !