anyone else losing it over the stocks? - Chevelle Tech
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post #1 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 3:13 PM Thread Starter
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anyone else losing it over the stocks?

wife keeps watching the talking heads and panicking about the 401k disaster. We're 56 and 57, shes got a good govt pension to retire on social security and .gov health insurance.
I try to explain that we still have the same shares, just they are worth less at the moment. My view is that in the next 3 to 5 years when the governments of the world starts dumping trillions of dollars into the world economy, it should translate to a market comeback with a vengeance.
Oil is still cheap and no shortages, banks dont have the subprime mortgage issues (but probably a crap ton of bankruptcy coming?)
I would imagine when all the forced.quarentine stops, people are going to be coming out buying, selling, and finding ways to put the govt handouts to make money.
Am I being to optimistic?
Wife will not listen to me, so i called a financial advisor at the local credit union for a appt to see what they recommend. I'm hoping he has some of the same views as me. jim
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post #2 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 3:19 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Selling off at the bottom is never a good plan. Every time I have panicked and sold off I have regretted it. I am hanging in there for now. An account with a local stockbroker varies a lot in these times. The statement from last month valued my account at $12,000 less than the month before. Unless you have very specific information (like that of some senators) stay invested.
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post #3 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 3:41 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Jim, I hope you are right. It is painful to watch the 401k's keep shrinking every day.

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post #4 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 3:47 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

The first thing Ive seen to not do is what your wife is doing. Looking at it everyday. If you have a few years to go, as hard as it may be, dont panic. If she bails out now , which is a big no no, she will have locked in the losses. Doing what you say, she still has the same number, but worth less at the moment. Historical records show the market goes up and down. She most likely gets the FedSmith emails, like I do. Read the articles on there and the comments at the end of the articles. The sound advice is to ride out the storm. What fund/funds is her funds in? Does she have the full amt in stocks only? (C Fund?)
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post #5 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 3:57 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

If you look at your 401k, you should see you are back to where you were about 3 years ago, maybe a little bit higher, depending on how you had it invested. I tend to be more conservative in my retirement accounts than my brokerage account though.

Depending on your mix, you could still be even higher than 3 years ago. My 401k for example, because of my mix, shows that YTD (from January 1st) I'm down 12%, but I am still 5% higher than I was 12 months ago. Now, if I look at it compared to the high in February, I'm down 20%+. It's all relative from when you take a starting point.

The question is, how low will this go, and then how long will it take to recover. No one knows at this point.

My guess is that it is going lower and will then recover in the next 2-3 years. I'm in for the ride in my 401k.

My on the side brokerage account on the other hand - that's a crap shoot and may send me up, down or sideways...

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post #6 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:30 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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Originally Posted by jwagner View Post
selling off at the bottom is never a good plan. Every time i have panicked and sold off i have regretted it. I am hanging in there for now. An account with a local stockbroker varies a lot in these times. The statement from last month valued my account at $12,000 less than the month before. Unless you have very specific information (like that of those in congress) stay invested.
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post #7 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:37 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

You need to look at what your invested in, a lot of these companies will go out of business because of this. IMHO, this is far worse than 2008 and we have not hit bottom yet. So yes what you have can get worse. Also note how long it took the market to recover from 2008. I can understand your wifes concerns, been there.
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post #8 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:37 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

My advice is that you should sit tight and just weather the storm. I'm 200% positive your financial advisor will tell you to do the same. The market will bounce back, it always does. Just remember how the market rebounded after the 2008 recession - it took 18 months to fully recover. The only reason you should sell at this time is if you need the cash for a major purchase such as a home, or if you cannot not live on your current income, social security, pension, etc.
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post #9 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:40 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

As a constituency, we all need to take a close look at the US Senators who bailed on the market due to the virus briefing given to them before everybody else. I see this sell off by our elected representatives as "insider trading," and I think any Senator or Representative who sold their stocks based on the info given to them prior to the market dropping should be prosecuted or at least recalled and voted out of office.
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post #10 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:58 PM
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The problem is that most retirement funds you purchase is fund of several different stocks. You own the fund not the stocks inside of it, what that means is that at anytime the fund manager can dissolve the fund your money go into a savings account but the brokerage house is the one that actually owns the stocks. This is how the brokerage house makes money you pay the cost of the brokerage house to dissolve the fund and you pay to transfer your money into a savings account and you pay to transfer your money to a new fund. This can happen as often as they want and the only one who loses is you, they can still make money in a bad market as it is now.

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post #11 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 4:58 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

I'm already retired and so adding to the nest egg is not an option. In the last 20 trading days, my portfolio has lost over 66K dollars. So far I wouldn't say I'm worried. Concerned but, I'm not panicked. It will come back as soon as this comes to an end.
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post #12 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 5:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryAT View Post
The first thing Ive seen to not do is what your wife is doing. Looking at it everyday. If you have a few years to go, as hard as it may be, dont panic. If she bails out now , which is a big no no, she will have locked in the losses. Doing what you say, she still has the same number, but worth less at the moment. Historical records show the market goes up and down. She most likely gets the FedSmith emails, like I do. Read the articles on there and the comments at the end of the articles. The sound advice is to ride out the storm. What fund/funds is her funds in? Does she have the full amt in stocks only? (C Fund?)
hers is 70% c fund 30% g fund (bonds)
my old 401k is 65% in bonds. 35% stocks
new job 401k been putting mostly in stocks and 2030 fund.
I figure if she pays a advisor and they tell her the same thing me and my son in law (has a BA from Eller business school) tells her for free, she might believe us then. Only big purchase we want to do is still buy a 1000-4 polaris rzr, which we did throw a low ball offer on a 2018 model we looked at last weekend.
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post #13 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 5:11 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Somebody famous last words " You only lose/make money when you sell" If at all possible stick it out.
FWIW I had a sell it all order in at my broker to sell at 30,000 DJ, the market made it to 29551, so I get to do the roller coaster ride again.

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post #14 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 5:20 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Although I sold over half early on I made one miscalculation and didn't sell my high yielding dividend stocks figuring I will get more cheap later but one of my stocks Ford just announced they are not paying any dividend this quarter. So I have a stock that's half what it was and no dividend to help out. It is only a reasonable guess the other stocks and funds will follow shortly.
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post #15 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 21st, 20, 5:34 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Everything points me to ride it out.

It doesn't feel good, but have confidence, it will come back.
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