anyone else losing it over the stocks? - Page 4 - Chevelle Tech
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post #46 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 11:43 AM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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but we still live like we're making minimum wage
That's the key Jim. I have some money (not rich by any means), but we live very skinny (my wife often calls me the frugal Jew which is partially true), but she understands also how to live within our means (which is also another reason she enjoys not having to work).

We've raised our kids to be the same way, and they all have good savings accounts and retirement funds and they even frown at how their own friends spend money foolishly.

As a Dad, I couldn't be more proud of them.
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post #47 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 11:55 AM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

And before anyone asks or might be offended, I'm not Jewish, but my grandfather is (was). I was raised Roman Catholic and still practice my religion (I just have Jewish tendencies when it comes to money).
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Last edited by kmakar; Mar 22nd, 20 at 12:18 PM.
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post #48 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 12:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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And before anyone asks or might be offended, I'm not Jewish, but my grandfather is (was). I was raised Roman Catholic and still practice my religion (I just have Jewish tendencies when it comes to money).
that's funny because my buddy's wife is Scottish decent and he always says her Scottish tendency makes her frugal borderline cheap. jim
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post #49 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 12:23 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

I got completely out of the market at around 28k with the market rising. I missed the rise above 28k to almost 30k but I've also missed the ride down. My cash isnít making squat but Iím not losing it either.
There was nothing that I could see to justify the market that high. The problem I see coming is the massive corporate debt used to buy back stock to falsely inflate stock prices.
This down is going to be awhile.

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post #50 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 12:27 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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I got completely out of the market at around 28k with the market rising. I missed the rise above 28k to almost 30k but I've also missed the ride down. My cash isnít making squat but Iím not losing it either.
There was nothing that I could see to justify the market that high. The problem I see coming is the massive corporate debt used to buy back stock to falsely inflate stock prices.
This down is going to be awhile.
Agreed. The market has been inflated for 3+ years and is now about where it should have been all along.
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post #51 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 1:28 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

Iíve been studying up on this a little, and it appears that during most recessions, the TTM PE falls to 10 or below. In 2008, the market fell 57% from the high. Other big recessionary drops were 40%+. This one just happens to be happening very quickly, not prolonged over many months/years.

If that were to hold true here, then the S&P 500 should fall to 1690 or below based on the TTM PE, or 1450 based on the percentage drop equivalent to 2008. Today itís at 2304. From the high, it is only down 32%. A further drop from the high of 20-25% is not out of the question.

Now, from current price, that would be a further drop of 27-37%. Last week alone the drop was 15%. This coming week could easily be the same.

Whether it gets that low, who knows. But I think we have a ways to go as in many cases, we are still only down to where we were 2-3 years ago. This also could just be a short flat spot before the next leg down.

On the flip side, if the virus falls off, a vaccine comes out quickly, or some other magic happens, it could turn around. But then I suspect it gets hammered again when the quarterly reports and estimates come out showing the job losses, revenue losses, etc.

I just see more downside potential than upside potential right now.

Remember, it goes up like an escalator, and comes down like an elevator.

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Agreed. The market has been inflated for 3+ years and is now about where it should have been all along.
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post #52 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 1:32 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

I'm just waiting to buy in and wondering what stocks are gonna be hot


later, dozer
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post #53 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 1:38 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

the trillion dollar question.......

the official textbook answer is.... the same ones that were hot before......
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post #54 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 1:45 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

The Trump administration has asked that the next release of unemployment numbers to be delayed. They are not going to be pretty.
Last week was 281k. The week before was 230k. Goldman Sachs predicts more than 2 million this week.
IMO itís going to get really ugly this coming week. Maybe the next week if the individual states actually delay the data release.

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post #55 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 2:19 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

The market was supposedly set for about zero growth thanks to tanking economies in places like Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, etc even before this current crisis. Once this virus mess is over you're still going to see a very long road to recovery. Those 20% annual returns aren't going to return anytime soon. I pulled out about 3 weeks ago and put everything into money markets and bonds. I'm retired so my long term isn't near as long as those still in the workforce.

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post #56 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 7:57 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

I'm down over 100k already. Looking to have some cash set aside for the bumpy road in the near-term. Not worried about long-term because the market always comes back. I can't touch my 401k until 9 more years anyways. As long as I have a cash cushion so that I'm okay for 12 months with no income, I'm not too concerned. If I were retiring next year that would be a different story. Market will go down more in the coming weeks before it bottoms. Too painful to watch. Don't lock in losses though. Live off of cash and leave the equities alone. They will recover. And stay out of individual stocks, for they are the most at risk. That is of course my .02 cents

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post #57 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 8:05 PM
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Cool Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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Originally Posted by kmakar View Post
And before anyone asks or might be offended, I'm not Jewish, but my grandfather is (was). I was raised Roman Catholic and still practice my religion (I just have Jewish tendencies when it comes to money).
tut-tut now...a woke progressive liberale thought patrol watchman might be lurking....
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post #58 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 8:09 PM
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Unhappy Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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Originally Posted by Paul J View Post
The market was supposedly set for about zero growth thanks to tanking economies in places like Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, etc even before this current crisis. Once this virus mess is over you're still going to see a very long road to recovery. Those 20% annual returns aren't going to return anytime soon. I pulled out about 3 weeks ago and put everything into money markets and bonds. I'm retired so my long term isn't near as long as those still in the workforce.
Yup. Took along time for the DJI to recover from the 1929 crash. Us geezers probably won't see it. The Trump market bump was fluke. Don't forget this years IRA and 401K distrubutions due by years end, based on EOY 2019 numbers. Brutal. Double-screwed. Maybe the IRS will give us a break?
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post #59 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 8:14 PM
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Unhappy Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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Originally Posted by 67_LS1 View Post
I got completely out of the market at around 28k with the market rising. I missed the rise above 28k to almost 30k but I've also missed the ride down. My cash isnít making squat but Iím not losing it either.
There was nothing that I could see to justify the market that high. The problem I see coming is the massive corporate debt used to buy back stock to falsely inflate stock prices.
This down is going to be awhile.
Out near the top? Brilliant timing! Probably mostly at long term capital gains rate too. I was "thinkin" about it. Last in first out. Too late now...boo hoo
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post #60 of 147 (permalink) Old Mar 22nd, 20, 8:45 PM
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Re: anyone else losing it over the stocks?

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Maybe the IRS will give us a break?
That's so damn funny that I choked on my ice tea......
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